Outlook: FALCON OIL & GAS LTD. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 16 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

## Abstract

FALCON OIL & GAS LTD. prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:FOG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. Decision Making
2. Market Outlook
3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

## LON:FOG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FALCON OIL & GAS LTD. Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:FOG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:FOG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:FOG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:FOG FALCON OIL & GAS LTD.
Time series to forecast n: 16 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for FALCON OIL & GAS LTD.

1. If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.
2. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.
3. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
4. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

FALCON OIL & GAS LTD. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. FALCON OIL & GAS LTD. prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:FOG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### LON:FOG FALCON OIL & GAS LTD. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosB3B2
Cash FlowCB3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 737 signals.

## References

1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
2. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
3. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
4. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
5. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
6. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
7. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:FOG stock?
A: LON:FOG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is LON:FOG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:FOG Stock.
Q: Is FALCON OIL & GAS LTD. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FALCON OIL & GAS LTD. is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:FOG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:FOG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:FOG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:FOG is (n+6 month)

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