LON:MACA MAC ALPHA LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: MAC ALPHA LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 15 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

MAC ALPHA LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:MACA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
2. Decision Making
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

LON:MACA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MAC ALPHA LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:MACA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:MACA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:MACA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:MACA MAC ALPHA LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 15 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for MAC ALPHA LIMITED

1. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary
2. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.
3. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.
4. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

MAC ALPHA LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. MAC ALPHA LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:MACA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

LON:MACA MAC ALPHA LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	C	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	B2	Baa2
Cash Flow	C	Ba3
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 555 signals.

References

1. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
2. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
3. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
4. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
5. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
6. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
7. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:MACA stock?
A: LON:MACA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:MACA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MACA Stock.
Q: Is MAC ALPHA LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MAC ALPHA LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:MACA stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:MACA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:MACA stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:MACA is (n+4 weeks)

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