Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:NTBR NORTHERN BEAR PLC

Outlook: NORTHERN BEAR PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 22 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

NORTHERN BEAR PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:NTBR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

LON:NTBR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NORTHERN BEAR PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:NTBR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:NTBR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:NTBR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:NTBR NORTHERN BEAR PLC
Time series to forecast n: 22 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for NORTHERN BEAR PLC

  1. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  2. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  3. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  4. An entity can rebut this presumption. However, it can do so only when it has reasonable and supportable information available that demonstrates that even if contractual payments become more than 30 days past due, this does not represent a significant increase in the credit risk of a financial instrument. For example when non-payment was an administrative oversight, instead of resulting from financial difficulty of the borrower, or the entity has access to historical evidence that demonstrates that there is no correlation between significant increases in the risk of a default occurring and financial assets on which payments are more than 30 days past due, but that evidence does identify such a correlation when payments are more than 60 days past due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

NORTHERN BEAR PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. NORTHERN BEAR PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:NTBR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:NTBR NORTHERN BEAR PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBa3Ba2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 804 signals.

References

  1. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  4. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  5. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
  6. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  7. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:NTBR stock?
A: LON:NTBR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:NTBR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:NTBR Stock.
Q: Is NORTHERN BEAR PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NORTHERN BEAR PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:NTBR stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:NTBR is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:NTBR stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:NTBR is (n+8 weeks)



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