Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:SAIN SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC

Outlook: SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 08 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SAIN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. Market Risk

LON:SAIN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:SAIN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:SAIN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:SAIN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:SAIN SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC
Time series to forecast n: 08 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC

  1. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.
  2. To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.
  3. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.
  4. A contractually specified inflation risk component of the cash flows of a recognised inflation-linked bond (assuming that there is no requirement to account for an embedded derivative separately) is separately identifiable and reliably measurable, as long as other cash flows of the instrument are not affected by the inflation risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SAIN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

LON:SAIN SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa1Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowCB2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 489 signals.

References

  1. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  2. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  3. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  4. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  5. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  6. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
  7. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:SAIN stock?
A: LON:SAIN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:SAIN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:SAIN Stock.
Q: Is SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO. PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:SAIN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:SAIN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:SAIN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:SAIN is (n+8 weeks)



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