Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:SSTY SAFESTAY PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: SAFESTAY PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 31 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

SAFESTAY PLC prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SSTY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

LON:SSTY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SAFESTAY PLC Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:SSTY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:SSTY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:SSTY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:SSTY SAFESTAY PLC
Time series to forecast n: 31 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for SAFESTAY PLC

  1. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
  2. IFRS 17, issued in May 2017, amended paragraphs 2.1, B2.1, B2.4, B2.5 and B4.1.30, and added paragraph 3.3.5. Amendments to IFRS 17, issued in June 2020, further amended paragraph 2.1 and added paragraphs 7.2.36‒7.2.42. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 17.
  3. Historical information is an important anchor or base from which to measure expected credit losses. However, an entity shall adjust historical data, such as credit loss experience, on the basis of current observable data to reflect the effects of the current conditions and its forecasts of future conditions that did not affect the period on which the historical data is based, and to remove the effects of the conditions in the historical period that are not relevant to the future contractual cash flows. In some cases, the best reasonable and supportable information could be the unadjusted historical information, depending on the nature of the historical information and when it was calculated, compared to circumstances at the reporting date and the characteristics of the financial instrument being considered. Estimates of changes in expected credit losses should reflect, and be directionally consistent with, changes in related observable data from period to period
  4. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

SAFESTAY PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. SAFESTAY PLC prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SSTY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:SSTY SAFESTAY PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Ba2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa2Ba1
Cash FlowCC
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 522 signals.

References

  1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  2. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  3. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  4. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  5. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  7. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:SSTY stock?
A: LON:SSTY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:SSTY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:SSTY Stock.
Q: Is SAFESTAY PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SAFESTAY PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:SSTY stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:SSTY is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:SSTY stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:SSTY is (n+8 weeks)

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