Modelling A.I. in Economics

NBH Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 08 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NBH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Trading Interaction
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. Can statistics predict the future?

NBH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NBH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NBH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NBH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NBH Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 08 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock

  1. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  2. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.
  3. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  4. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NBH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

NBH Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCCaa2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba3
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba3
Cash FlowBaa2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 502 signals.

References

  1. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  2. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  3. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
  4. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Trading Signals (WTS Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  7. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NBH stock?
A: NBH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is NBH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NBH Stock.
Q: Is Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Neuberger Berman Municipal Fund Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NBH stock?
A: The consensus rating for NBH is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NBH stock?
A: The prediction period for NBH is (n+6 month)



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