**Outlook:**Plumas Bancorp is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Sell

**Time series to forecast n: 23 Mar 2023**for (n+16 weeks)

**Methodology :**Multi-Task Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Plumas Bancorp prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^{1,2,3,4}and it is concluded that the PLBC stock is predictable in the short/long term.

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

## Key Points

- Can neural networks predict stock market?
- What is the use of Markov decision process?
- Can neural networks predict stock market?

## PLBC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Plumas Bancorp Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PLBC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Multiple Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PLBC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## PLBC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**PLBC Plumas Bancorp

**Time series to forecast n: 23 Mar 2023**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Plumas Bancorp

- All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
- If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
- To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.
- The underlying pool must contain one or more instruments that have contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Plumas Bancorp is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Plumas Bancorp prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^{1,2,3,4} and it is concluded that the PLBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. ** According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

### PLBC Plumas Bancorp Financial Analysis*

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | Ba1 |

Income Statement | Baa2 | Ba3 |

Balance Sheet | B2 | C |

Leverage Ratios | Baa2 | Ba1 |

Cash Flow | B1 | B1 |

Rates of Return and Profitability | C | Baa2 |

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.

How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
- Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
- Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
- Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
- Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
- Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
- Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PLBC stock?A: PLBC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression

Q: Is PLBC stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PLBC Stock.

Q: Is Plumas Bancorp stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Plumas Bancorp is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of PLBC stock?

A: The consensus rating for PLBC is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for PLBC stock?

A: The prediction period for PLBC is (n+16 weeks)