Modelling A.I. in Economics

PLUS ePlus inc. Common Stock

Outlook: ePlus inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 04 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

ePlus inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PLUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

PLUS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ePlus inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PLUS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PLUS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PLUS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PLUS ePlus inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 04 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ePlus inc. Common Stock

  1. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.
  2. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).
  3. For the purpose of applying the requirement in paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  4. The fair value of a financial instrument at initial recognition is normally the transaction price (ie the fair value of the consideration given or received, see also paragraph B5.1.2A and IFRS 13). However, if part of the consideration given or received is for something other than the financial instrument, an entity shall measure the fair value of the financial instrument. For example, the fair value of a long-term loan or receivable that carries no interest can be measured as the present value of all future cash receipts discounted using the prevailing market rate(s) of interest for a similar instrument (similar as to currency, term, type of interest rate and other factors) with a similar credit rating. Any additional amount lent is an expense or a reduction of income unless it qualifies for recognition as some other type of asset.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ePlus inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ePlus inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PLUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

PLUS ePlus inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B3
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 464 signals.

References

  1. Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
  2. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  3. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  6. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  7. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PLUS stock?
A: PLUS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta
Q: Is PLUS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PLUS Stock.
Q: Is ePlus inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ePlus inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PLUS stock?
A: The consensus rating for PLUS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PLUS stock?
A: The prediction period for PLUS is (n+1 year)

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