**Outlook:**Sierra Metals Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Sell

**Time series to forecast n: 02 Mar 2023**for (n+6 month)

**Methodology :**Statistical Inference (ML)

## Abstract

Sierra Metals Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^{1,2,3,4}and it is concluded that the SMT:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term.

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

## Key Points

- Trading Interaction
- Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
- Trust metric by Neural Network

## SMT:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Sierra Metals Inc. Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SMT:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SMT:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## SMT:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**SMT:TSX Sierra Metals Inc.

**Time series to forecast n: 02 Mar 2023**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Sierra Metals Inc.

- However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.
- That the transferee is unlikely to sell the transferred asset does not, of itself, mean that the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. However, if a put option or guarantee constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset, then the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. For example, if a put option or guarantee is sufficiently valuable it constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset because the transferee would, in practice, not sell the transferred asset to a third party without attaching a similar option or other restrictive conditions. Instead, the transferee would hold the transferred asset so as to obtain payments under the guarantee or put option. Under these circumstances the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset.
- If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
- Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Sierra Metals Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Sierra Metals Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^{1,2,3,4} and it is concluded that the SMT:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. ** According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

### SMT:TSX Sierra Metals Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba1 | Ba1 |

Income Statement | Caa2 | Baa2 |

Balance Sheet | Caa2 | Ba2 |

Leverage Ratios | C | Ba2 |

Cash Flow | Ba1 | Ba3 |

Rates of Return and Profitability | B2 | Ba3 |

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.

How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
- Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., MO Stock Price Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
- Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
- V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
- K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
- Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
- N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SMT:TSX stock?A: SMT:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing

Q: Is SMT:TSX stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SMT:TSX Stock.

Q: Is Sierra Metals Inc. stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Sierra Metals Inc. is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of SMT:TSX stock?

A: The consensus rating for SMT:TSX is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for SMT:TSX stock?

A: The prediction period for SMT:TSX is (n+6 month)