Modelling A.I. in Economics

SOU:TSXV Southern Energy Corp.

Outlook: Southern Energy Corp. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 04 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

Southern Energy Corp. prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SOU:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Reaction Function
  3. Investment Risk

SOU:TSXV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Southern Energy Corp. Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SOU:TSXV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SOU:TSXV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SOU:TSXV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SOU:TSXV Southern Energy Corp.
Time series to forecast n: 04 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Southern Energy Corp.

  1. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
  2. For the purposes of measuring expected credit losses, the estimate of expected cash shortfalls shall reflect the cash flows expected from collateral and other credit enhancements that are part of the contractual terms and are not recognised separately by the entity. The estimate of expected cash shortfalls on a collateralised financial instrument reflects the amount and timing of cash flows that are expected from foreclosure on the collateral less the costs of obtaining and selling the collateral, irrespective of whether foreclosure is probable (ie the estimate of expected cash flows considers the probability of a foreclosure and the cash flows that would result from it). Consequently, any cash flows that are expected from the realisation of the collateral beyond the contractual maturity of the contract should be included in this analysis. Any collateral obtained as a result of foreclosure is not recognised as an asset that is separate from the collateralised financial instrument unless it meets the relevant recognition criteria for an asset in this or other Standards.
  3. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.
  4. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Southern Energy Corp. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Southern Energy Corp. prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SOU:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

SOU:TSXV Southern Energy Corp. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowB3B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 661 signals.

References

  1. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  2. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  3. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
  4. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  5. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
  6. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  7. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SOU:TSXV stock?
A: SOU:TSXV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is SOU:TSXV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SOU:TSXV Stock.
Q: Is Southern Energy Corp. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Southern Energy Corp. is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SOU:TSXV stock?
A: The consensus rating for SOU:TSXV is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SOU:TSXV stock?
A: The prediction period for SOU:TSXV is (n+4 weeks)



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