VGL VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. (Forecast)

Outlook: VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 29 Mar 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the VGL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

VGL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of VGL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VGL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VGL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VGL VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED.
Time series to forecast n: 29 Mar 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED.

1. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
2. Historical information is an important anchor or base from which to measure expected credit losses. However, an entity shall adjust historical data, such as credit loss experience, on the basis of current observable data to reflect the effects of the current conditions and its forecasts of future conditions that did not affect the period on which the historical data is based, and to remove the effects of the conditions in the historical period that are not relevant to the future contractual cash flows. In some cases, the best reasonable and supportable information could be the unadjusted historical information, depending on the nature of the historical information and when it was calculated, compared to circumstances at the reporting date and the characteristics of the financial instrument being considered. Estimates of changes in expected credit losses should reflect, and be directionally consistent with, changes in related observable data from period to period
3. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
4. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the VGL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

VGL VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	C	Baa2
Balance Sheet	B2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	C	Ba3
Cash Flow	Caa2	B1
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 743 signals.

References

1. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
2. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
3. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
4. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
5. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017
6. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
7. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for VGL stock?
A: VGL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is VGL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VGL Stock.
Q: Is VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED. is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VGL stock?
A: The consensus rating for VGL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for VGL stock?
A: The prediction period for VGL is (n+3 month)

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