VKI Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) (Forecast)

Outlook: Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 02 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the VKI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
2. Prediction Modeling
3. Can stock prices be predicted?

VKI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of VKI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VKI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VKI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VKI Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE)
Time series to forecast n: 02 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE)

1. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
2. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.
3. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
4. Paragraph 6.3.6 states that in consolidated financial statements the foreign currency risk of a highly probable forecast intragroup transaction may qualify as a hedged item in a cash flow hedge, provided that the transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the entity entering into that transaction and that the foreign currency risk will affect consolidated profit or loss. For this purpose an entity can be a parent, subsidiary, associate, joint arrangement or branch. If the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction does not affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction cannot qualify as a hedged item. This is usually the case for royalty payments, interest payments or management charges between members of the same group, unless there is a related external transaction. However, when the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction will affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction can qualify as a hedged item. An example is forecast sales or purchases of inventories between members of the same group if there is an onward sale of the inventory to a party external to the group. Similarly, a forecast intragroup sale of plant and equipment from the group entity that manufactured it to a group entity that will use the plant and equipment in its operations may affect consolidated profit or loss. This could occur, for example, because the plant and equipment will be depreciated by the purchasing entity and the amount initially recognised for the plant and equipment may change if the forecast intragroup transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the purchasing entity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the VKI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

VKI Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B3	Ba1
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	B2	Caa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 473 signals.

References

1. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
2. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
3. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
4. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
5. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can neural networks predict stock market?(ATVI Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
7. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for VKI stock?
A: VKI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is VKI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VKI Stock.
Q: Is Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (DE) is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VKI stock?
A: The consensus rating for VKI is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for VKI stock?
A: The prediction period for VKI is (n+6 month)

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