Modelling A.I. in Economics

ACR ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock

Outlook: ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 06 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ACR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. Stock Rating

ACR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ACR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ACR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ACR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ACR ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 06 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock

  1. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.
  2. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  3. When rebalancing a hedging relationship, an entity shall update its analysis of the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its (remaining) term (see paragraph B6.4.2). The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated accordingly.
  4. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ACR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

ACR ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Ba3
Balance SheetBa3C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 499 signals.

References

  1. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  3. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  4. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
  5. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  6. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  7. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ACR stock?
A: ACR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is ACR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ACR Stock.
Q: Is ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ACRES Commercial Realty Corp. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ACR stock?
A: The consensus rating for ACR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ACR stock?
A: The prediction period for ACR is (n+3 month)

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