Outlook: American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 16 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AFGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

## Key Points

1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

## AFGD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AFGD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFGD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AFGD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AFGD American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060
Time series to forecast n: 16 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060

1. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.
2. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
3. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
4. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AFGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

### AFGD American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa1C
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba1
Cash FlowBa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 637 signals.

## References

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2. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
3. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
4. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
6. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
7. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AFGD stock?
A: AFGD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is AFGD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes AFGD Stock.
Q: Is American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AFGD stock?
A: The consensus rating for AFGD is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for AFGD stock?
A: The prediction period for AFGD is (n+16 weeks)