ALLY Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 14 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ALLY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

ALLY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ALLY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ALLY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ALLY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ALLY Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 14 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock

1. An entity is not required to incorporate forecasts of future conditions over the entire expected life of a financial instrument. The degree of judgement that is required to estimate expected credit losses depends on the availability of detailed information. As the forecast horizon increases, the availability of detailed information decreases and the degree of judgement required to estimate expected credit losses increases. The estimate of expected credit losses does not require a detailed estimate for periods that are far in the future—for such periods, an entity may extrapolate projections from available, detailed information.
2. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
3. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.
4. However, in some cases, the time value of money element may be modified (ie imperfect). That would be the case, for example, if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset but the frequency of that reset does not match the tenor of the interest rate (for example, the interest rate resets every month to a one-year rate) or if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset to an average of particular short- and long-term interest rates. In such cases, an entity must assess the modification to determine whether the contractual cash flows represent solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. In some circumstances, the entity may be able to make that determination by performing a qualitative assessment of the time value of money element whereas, in other circumstances, it may be necessary to perform a quantitative assessment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ALLY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

ALLY Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Baa2	B1
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Caa2
Cash Flow	C	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 605 signals.

References

1. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
2. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
3. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
4. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
5. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
6. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
7. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ALLY stock?
A: ALLY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is ALLY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ALLY Stock.
Q: Is Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ally Financial Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ALLY stock?
A: The consensus rating for ALLY is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ALLY stock?
A: The prediction period for ALLY is (n+3 month)

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