Modelling A.I. in Economics

AQN:TSX Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (Forecast)

Outlook: Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 10 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AQN:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

AQN:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AQN:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AQN:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AQN:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AQN:TSX Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
Time series to forecast n: 10 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.

  1. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
  2. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
  3. An example of a fair value hedge is a hedge of exposure to changes in the fair value of a fixed-rate debt instrument arising from changes in interest rates. Such a hedge could be entered into by the issuer or by the holder.
  4. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AQN:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

AQN:TSX Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 871 signals.

References

  1. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  2. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
  3. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  4. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  5. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  6. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
  7. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AQN:TSX stock?
A: AQN:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is AQN:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AQN:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AQN:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for AQN:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AQN:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for AQN:TSX is (n+16 weeks)

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