Modelling A.I. in Economics

CAR CARSALES.COM LIMITED. (Forecast)

Outlook: CARSALES.COM LIMITED. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : SellHold
Time series to forecast n: 10 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

CARSALES.COM LIMITED. prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CAR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

Key Points

  1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

CAR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CARSALES.COM LIMITED. Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CAR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CAR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CAR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CAR CARSALES.COM LIMITED.
Time series to forecast n: 10 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for CARSALES.COM LIMITED.

  1. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  2. When designating a hedging relationship and on an ongoing basis, an entity shall analyse the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its term. This analysis (including any updates in accordance with paragraph B6.5.21 arising from rebalancing a hedging relationship) is the basis for the entity's assessment of meeting the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  3. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
  4. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

CARSALES.COM LIMITED. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. CARSALES.COM LIMITED. prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CAR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

CAR CARSALES.COM LIMITED. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa1B3
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B3
Cash FlowBa3B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 523 signals.

References

  1. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  2. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  3. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., What are buy sell or hold recommendations?(AIRC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
  6. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  7. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CAR stock?
A: CAR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is CAR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellHold CAR Stock.
Q: Is CARSALES.COM LIMITED. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CARSALES.COM LIMITED. is SellHold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CAR stock?
A: The consensus rating for CAR is SellHold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CAR stock?
A: The prediction period for CAR is (n+6 month)

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