Modelling A.I. in Economics

CBIO Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 02 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CBIO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. Is Target price a good indicator?

CBIO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CBIO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CBIO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CBIO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CBIO Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 02 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock

  1. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
  2. Paragraph 4.1.1(a) requires an entity to classify financial assets on the basis of the entity's business model for managing the financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. An entity assesses whether its financial assets meet the condition in paragraph 4.1.2(a) or the condition in paragraph 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the business model as determined by the entity's key management personnel (as defined in IAS 24 Related Party Disclosures).
  3. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
  4. Rebalancing refers to the adjustments made to the designated quantities of the hedged item or the hedging instrument of an already existing hedging relationship for the purpose of maintaining a hedge ratio that complies with the hedge effectiveness requirements. Changes to designated quantities of a hedged item or of a hedging instrument for a different purpose do not constitute rebalancing for the purpose of this Standard

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CBIO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

CBIO Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3B1
Balance SheetBaa2B1
Leverage RatiosB3Ba1
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 471 signals.

References

  1. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
  2. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  3. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  4. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  5. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  6. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  7. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CBIO stock?
A: CBIO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is CBIO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes CBIO Stock.
Q: Is Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Catalyst Biosciences Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CBIO stock?
A: The consensus rating for CBIO is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for CBIO stock?
A: The prediction period for CBIO is (n+6 month)

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