Modelling A.I. in Economics

CPAC Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares)

Outlook: Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 09 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares) prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CPAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

CPAC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares) Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CPAC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CPAC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CPAC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CPAC Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares)
Time series to forecast n: 09 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares)

  1. In cases such as those described in the preceding paragraph, to designate, at initial recognition, the financial assets and financial liabilities not otherwise so measured as at fair value through profit or loss may eliminate or significantly reduce the measurement or recognition inconsistency and produce more relevant information. For practical purposes, the entity need not enter into all of the assets and liabilities giving rise to the measurement or recognition inconsistency at exactly the same time. A reasonable delay is permitted provided that each transaction is designated as at fair value through profit or loss at its initial recognition and, at that time, any remaining transactions are expected to occur.
  2. For the avoidance of doubt, the effects of replacing the original counterparty with a clearing counterparty and making the associated changes as described in paragraph 6.5.6 shall be reflected in the measurement of the hedging instrument and therefore in the assessment of hedge effectiveness and the measurement of hedge effectiveness
  3. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods only if it is possible to do so without the use of hindsight. If an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all the requirements in this Standard for the affected financial instruments. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares) prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CPAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CPAC Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3C
Balance SheetB2Ba3
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 612 signals.

References

  1. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you decide buy or sell a stock?(SAIC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  4. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  5. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  6. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  7. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CPAC stock?
A: CPAC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is CPAC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CPAC Stock.
Q: Is Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing five Common Shares) is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CPAC stock?
A: The consensus rating for CPAC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CPAC stock?
A: The prediction period for CPAC is (n+1 year)

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