Outlook: Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 21 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EDSA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. What is neural prediction?
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

## EDSA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of EDSA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EDSA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## EDSA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EDSA Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 21 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares

1. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
2. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
3. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
4. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EDSA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### EDSA Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Ba1
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosCaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 569 signals. ## References

1. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
2. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
3. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
6. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
7. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EDSA stock?
A: EDSA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is EDSA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EDSA Stock.
Q: Is Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EDSA stock?
A: The consensus rating for EDSA is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for EDSA stock?
A: The prediction period for EDSA is (n+4 weeks)