Modelling A.I. in Economics

EGL ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE)

Outlook: ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 29 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EGL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Game Theory
  2. Trading Interaction
  3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

EGL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EGL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EGL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EGL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EGL ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE)
Time series to forecast n: 29 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE)

  1. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  2. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary
  3. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.
  4. For loan commitments, an entity considers changes in the risk of a default occurring on the loan to which a loan commitment relates. For financial guarantee contracts, an entity considers the changes in the risk that the specified debtor will default on the contract.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE) is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EGL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

EGL ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3Baa2
Balance SheetBa3B1
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowBa3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 880 signals.

References

  1. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  2. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  3. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
  4. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  5. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  6. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  7. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EGL stock?
A: EGL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is EGL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EGL Stock.
Q: Is ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED (THE) is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EGL stock?
A: The consensus rating for EGL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for EGL stock?
A: The prediction period for EGL is (n+6 month)



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