Modelling A.I. in Economics

ERF Enerplus Corporation Common Stock

Outlook: Enerplus Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 20 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Enerplus Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ERF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Stock Rating
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

ERF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Enerplus Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ERF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ERF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ERF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ERF Enerplus Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 20 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Enerplus Corporation Common Stock

  1. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
  2. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.
  3. Compared to a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows, this business model will typically involve greater frequency and value of sales. This is because selling financial assets is integral to achieving the business model's objective instead of being only incidental to it. However, there is no threshold for the frequency or value of sales that must occur in this business model because both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets are integral to achieving its objective.
  4. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Enerplus Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Enerplus Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ERF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

ERF Enerplus Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 460 signals.

References

  1. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  2. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  4. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  5. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  6. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
  7. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ERF stock?
A: ERF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is ERF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes ERF Stock.
Q: Is Enerplus Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Enerplus Corporation Common Stock is BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ERF stock?
A: The consensus rating for ERF is BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for ERF stock?
A: The prediction period for ERF is (n+6 month)

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