Modelling A.I. in Economics

GOVXW GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants (Forecast)

Outlook: GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 05 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GOVXW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  2. Stock Rating
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

GOVXW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GOVXW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GOVXW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GOVXW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GOVXW GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants
Time series to forecast n: 05 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants

  1. For example, an entity hedges an exposure to Foreign Currency A using a currency derivative that references Foreign Currency B and Foreign Currencies A and B are pegged (ie their exchange rate is maintained within a band or at an exchange rate set by a central bank or other authority). If the exchange rate between Foreign Currency A and Foreign Currency B were changed (ie a new band or rate was set), rebalancing the hedging relationship to reflect the new exchange rate would ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet the hedge effectiveness requirement for the hedge ratio in the new circumstances. In contrast, if there was a default on the currency derivative, changing the hedge ratio could not ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet that hedge effectiveness requirement. Hence, rebalancing does not facilitate the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item changes in a way that cannot be compensated for by adjusting the hedge ratio
  2. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)
  3. Lifetime expected credit losses are not recognised on a financial instrument simply because it was considered to have low credit risk in the previous reporting period and is not considered to have low credit risk at the reporting date. In such a case, an entity shall determine whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition and thus whether lifetime expected credit losses are required to be recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.5.3.
  4. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GOVXW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

GOVXW GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B1
Balance SheetCaa2Ba2
Leverage RatiosCBa3
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 855 signals.

References

  1. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is TPL a Buy?. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  4. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  5. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
  6. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  7. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GOVXW stock?
A: GOVXW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is GOVXW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GOVXW Stock.
Q: Is GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GeoVax Labs Inc. Warrants is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GOVXW stock?
A: The consensus rating for GOVXW is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for GOVXW stock?
A: The prediction period for GOVXW is (n+1 year)

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