Modelling A.I. in Economics

HIG Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock

Outlook: Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 04 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HIG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Can statistics predict the future?
  2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

HIG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of HIG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HIG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HIG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HIG Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 04 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock

  1. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.
  2. For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.
  3. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
  4. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HIG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

HIG Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3Caa2
Balance SheetCCaa2
Leverage RatiosB3Caa2
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 563 signals.

References

  1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you know when a stock will go up or down?(STJ Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  2. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  3. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
  4. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
  5. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  6. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  7. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HIG stock?
A: HIG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Factor
Q: Is HIG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HIG Stock.
Q: Is Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (The) Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HIG stock?
A: The consensus rating for HIG is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for HIG stock?
A: The prediction period for HIG is (n+8 weeks)

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