Outlook: Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Time series to forecast n: 04 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

## Abstract

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. Stock Rating
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. Prediction Modeling

## HOV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of HOV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Beta)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HOV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HOV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 04 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock

1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
2. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).
3. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.
4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCB2
Balance SheetB3C
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 550 signals. ## References

1. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
2. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
3. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
4. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
5. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
6. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
7. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HOV stock?
A: HOV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Beta
Q: Is HOV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HOV Stock.
Q: Is Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HOV stock?
A: The consensus rating for HOV is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for HOV stock?
A: The prediction period for HOV is (n+6 month)