Modelling A.I. in Economics

HXT:TSX Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF (Forecast)

Outlook: Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 11 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HXT:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

HXT:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HXT:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HXT:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HXT:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HXT:TSX Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF
Time series to forecast n: 11 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

  1. It would not be acceptable to designate only some of the financial assets and financial liabilities giving rise to the inconsistency as at fair value through profit or loss if to do so would not eliminate or significantly reduce the inconsistency and would therefore not result in more relevant information. However, it would be acceptable to designate only some of a number of similar financial assets or similar financial liabilities if doing so achieves a significant reduction (and possibly a greater reduction than other allowable designations) in the inconsistency. For example, assume an entity has a number of similar financial liabilities that sum to CU100 and a number of similar financial assets that sum to CU50 but are measured on a different basis. The entity may significantly reduce the measurement inconsistency by designating at initial recognition all of the assets but only some of the liabilities (for example, individual liabilities with a combined total of CU45) as at fair value through profit or loss. However, because designation as at fair value through profit or loss can be applied only to the whole of a financial instrument, the entity in this example must designate one or more liabilities in their entirety. It could not designate either a component of a liability (eg changes in value attributable to only one risk, such as changes in a benchmark interest rate) or a proportion (ie percentage) of a liability.
  2. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  3. If, in applying paragraph 7.2.44, an entity reinstates a discontinued hedging relationship, the entity shall read references in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to the date the alternative benchmark rate is designated as a noncontractually specified risk component for the first time as referring to the date of initial application of these amendments (ie the 24-month period for that alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component begins from the date of initial application of these amendments).
  4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HXT:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

HXT:TSX Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Ba3
Balance SheetBa3C
Leverage RatiosB3Ba3
Cash FlowB1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 829 signals.

References

  1. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  2. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  4. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
  5. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  6. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
  7. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HXT:TSX stock?
A: HXT:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is HXT:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HXT:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Horizons S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HXT:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for HXT:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for HXT:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for HXT:TSX is (n+4 weeks)

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