Modelling A.I. in Economics

IVR^B Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg (Forecast)

Outlook: Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 29 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the IVR^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. Trading Signals

IVR^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of IVR^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IVR^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IVR^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IVR^B Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg
Time series to forecast n: 29 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg

  1. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
  2. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
  3. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  4. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the IVR^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

IVR^B Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 570 signals.

References

  1. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  2. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  3. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  4. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
  5. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  6. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  7. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for IVR^B stock?
A: IVR^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is IVR^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy IVR^B Stock.
Q: Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Preferred Series B Cum Fxd to Fltg is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IVR^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for IVR^B is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for IVR^B stock?
A: The prediction period for IVR^B is (n+1 year)

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