Modelling A.I. in Economics

JHS John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 17 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JHS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  2. Short/Long Term Stocks
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

JHS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of JHS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JHS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

JHS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JHS John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 17 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock

  1. If a financial asset contains a contractual term that could change the timing or amount of contractual cash flows (for example, if the asset can be prepaid before maturity or its term can be extended), the entity must determine whether the contractual cash flows that could arise over the life of the instrument due to that contractual term are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. To make this determination, the entity must assess the contractual cash flows that could arise both before, and after, the change in contractual cash flows. The entity may also need to assess the nature of any contingent event (ie the trigger) that would change the timing or amount of the contractual cash flows. While the nature of the contingent event in itself is not a determinative factor in assessing whether the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest, it may be an indicator. For example, compare a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if the debtor misses a particular number of payments to a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if a specified equity index reaches a particular level. It is more likely in the former case that the contractual cash flows over the life of the instrument will be solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding because of the relationship between missed payments and an increase in credit risk. (See also paragraph B4.1.18.)
  2. For loan commitments, an entity considers changes in the risk of a default occurring on the loan to which a loan commitment relates. For financial guarantee contracts, an entity considers the changes in the risk that the specified debtor will default on the contract.
  3. An example of a fair value hedge is a hedge of exposure to changes in the fair value of a fixed-rate debt instrument arising from changes in interest rates. Such a hedge could be entered into by the issuer or by the holder.
  4. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JHS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

JHS John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBa3C
Leverage RatiosBa2C
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 754 signals.

References

  1. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  2. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  3. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  4. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  5. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
  6. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  7. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for JHS stock?
A: JHS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is JHS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell JHS Stock.
Q: Is John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for John Hancock Income Securities Trust Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JHS stock?
A: The consensus rating for JHS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for JHS stock?
A: The prediction period for JHS is (n+3 month)

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