Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:87IP WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 03 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:87IP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. Probability Distribution

LON:87IP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:87IP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:87IP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:87IP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:87IP WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 03 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

  1. For the purpose of recognising foreign exchange gains and losses under IAS 21, a financial asset measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A is treated as a monetary item. Accordingly, such a financial asset is treated as an asset measured at amortised cost in the foreign currency. Exchange differences on the amortised cost are recognised in profit or loss and other changes in the carrying amount are recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.7.10.
  2. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods only if it is possible to do so without the use of hindsight. If an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all the requirements in this Standard for the affected financial instruments. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  3. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
  4. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:87IP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:87IP WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2B3
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosB1Caa2
Cash FlowBa2B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 654 signals.

References

  1. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Short/Long Term Stocks: FOX Stock Forecast. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  4. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
  6. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  7. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:87IP stock?
A: LON:87IP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:87IP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:87IP Stock.
Q: Is WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:87IP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:87IP is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:87IP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:87IP is (n+8 weeks)

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