Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:ASY ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 28 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ASY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Investment Risk
  2. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  3. Prediction Modeling

LON:ASY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ASY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ASY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ASY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ASY ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 28 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC

  1. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
  2. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
  3. To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.
  4. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ASY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:ASY ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3Baa2
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowB2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCC

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 777 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  3. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  4. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  5. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  6. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  7. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ASY stock?
A: LON:ASY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:ASY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ASY Stock.
Q: Is ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ANDREWS SYKES GROUP PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ASY stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ASY is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ASY stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ASY is (n+1 year)

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