Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:BYG BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC

Outlook: BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 14 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:BYG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

LON:BYG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BYG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BYG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BYG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BYG BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 14 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC

  1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  2. The risk of a default occurring on financial instruments that have comparable credit risk is higher the longer the expected life of the instrument; for example, the risk of a default occurring on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of 10 years is higher than that on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of five years.
  3. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
  4. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:BYG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

LON:BYG BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetB1C
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 660 signals.

References

  1. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  2. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  3. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  4. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
  5. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  6. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  7. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BYG stock?
A: LON:BYG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:BYG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:BYG Stock.
Q: Is BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BIG YELLOW GROUP PLC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BYG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BYG is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BYG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BYG is (n+4 weeks)



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