Outlook: ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Time series to forecast n: 09 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

## Abstract

ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ELLA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
2. Market Outlook
3. Investment Risk

## LON:ELLA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ELLA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ELLA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:ELLA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ELLA ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC
Time series to forecast n: 09 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC

1. If any instrument in the pool does not meet the conditions in either paragraph B4.1.23 or paragraph B4.1.24, the condition in paragraph B4.1.21(b) is not met. In performing this assessment, a detailed instrument-byinstrument analysis of the pool may not be necessary. However, an entity must use judgement and perform sufficient analysis to determine whether the instruments in the pool meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24. (See also paragraph B4.1.18 for guidance on contractual cash flow characteristics that have only a de minimis effect.)
2. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.
3. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).
4. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ELLA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### LON:ELLA ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Ba3
Balance SheetB2B3
Leverage RatiosB2C
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 711 signals.

## References

1. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
2. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
3. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
4. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
5. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
7. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ELLA stock?
A: LON:ELLA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:ELLA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:ELLA Stock.
Q: Is ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ECCLESIASTICAL INSURANCE OFFICE PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ELLA stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ELLA is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ELLA stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ELLA is (n+1 year)