Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:HNG HAWKWING PLC

Outlook: HAWKWING PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 10 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

HAWKWING PLC prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:HNG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Game Theory
  2. Can machine learning predict?
  3. What is prediction model?

LON:HNG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HAWKWING PLC Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HNG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HNG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HNG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HNG HAWKWING PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for HAWKWING PLC

  1. An entity is not required to incorporate forecasts of future conditions over the entire expected life of a financial instrument. The degree of judgement that is required to estimate expected credit losses depends on the availability of detailed information. As the forecast horizon increases, the availability of detailed information decreases and the degree of judgement required to estimate expected credit losses increases. The estimate of expected credit losses does not require a detailed estimate for periods that are far in the future—for such periods, an entity may extrapolate projections from available, detailed information.
  2. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.
  3. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.
  4. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

HAWKWING PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. HAWKWING PLC prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:HNG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:HNG HAWKWING PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Caa2
Balance SheetBa3Caa2
Leverage RatiosBa3Caa2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 534 signals.

References

  1. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  2. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  3. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  4. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  5. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  6. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  7. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HNG stock?
A: LON:HNG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:HNG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:HNG Stock.
Q: Is HAWKWING PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HAWKWING PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HNG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HNG is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HNG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HNG is (n+8 weeks)

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