Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:JOUL JOULES GROUP PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: JOULES GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 27 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

JOULES GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:JOUL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

LON:JOUL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider JOULES GROUP PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:JOUL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:JOUL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:JOUL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:JOUL JOULES GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 27 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for JOULES GROUP PLC

  1. When applying the effective interest method, an entity generally amortises any fees, points paid or received, transaction costs and other premiums or discounts that are included in the calculation of the effective interest rate over the expected life of the financial instrument. However, a shorter period is used if this is the period to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate. This will be the case when the variable to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate is repriced to market rates before the expected maturity of the financial instrument. In such a case, the appropriate amortisation period is the period to the next such repricing date. For example, if a premium or discount on a floating-rate financial instrument reflects the interest that has accrued on that financial instrument since the interest was last paid, or changes in the market rates since the floating interest rate was reset to the market rates, it will be amortised to the next date when the floating interest is reset to market rates. This is because the premium or discount relates to the period to the next interest reset date because, at that date, the variable to which the premium or discount relates (ie interest rates) is reset to the market rates. If, however, the premium or discount results from a change in the credit spread over the floating rate specified in the financial instrument, or other variables that are not reset to the market rates, it is amortised over the expected life of the financial instrument.
  2. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
  3. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
  4. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

JOULES GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. JOULES GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:JOUL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:JOUL JOULES GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2B2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowB2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 766 signals.

References

  1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Tempur Sealy Stock Forecast & Analysis. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  2. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  3. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  4. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
  5. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  6. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  7. Abadie A, Imbens GW. 2011. Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 29:1–11
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:JOUL stock?
A: LON:JOUL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Factor
Q: Is LON:JOUL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:JOUL Stock.
Q: Is JOULES GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JOULES GROUP PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:JOUL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:JOUL is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:JOUL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:JOUL is (n+1 year)

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