Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:LINV LENDINVEST PLC

Outlook: LENDINVEST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 06 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

LENDINVEST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LINV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is prediction model?
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

LON:LINV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider LENDINVEST PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LINV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LINV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LINV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LINV LENDINVEST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 06 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for LENDINVEST PLC

  1. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
  2. If the holder cannot assess the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 at initial recognition, the tranche must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. If the underlying pool of instruments can change after initial recognition in such a way that the pool may not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the tranche does not meet the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 and must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. However, if the underlying pool includes instruments that are collateralised by assets that do not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the ability to take possession of such assets shall be disregarded for the purposes of applying this paragraph unless the entity acquired the tranche with the intention of controlling the collateral.
  3. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.
  4. When an entity first applies this Standard, it may choose as its accounting policy to continue to apply the hedge accounting requirements of IAS 39 instead of the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard. An entity shall apply that policy to all of its hedging relationships. An entity that chooses that policy shall also apply IFRIC 16 Hedges of a Net Investment in a Foreign Operation without the amendments that conform that Interpretation to the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

LENDINVEST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. LENDINVEST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LINV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:LINV LENDINVEST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCB2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2C
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 559 signals.

References

  1. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
  2. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  3. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  4. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  5. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  6. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  7. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LINV stock?
A: LON:LINV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:LINV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:LINV Stock.
Q: Is LENDINVEST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LENDINVEST PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LINV stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LINV is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LINV stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LINV is (n+3 month)

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