Outlook: PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 04 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

## Abstract

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:PFG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
3. Short/Long Term Stocks

## LON:PFG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PFG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PFG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:PFG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PFG PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC
Time series to forecast n: 04 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC

1. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.
2. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
3. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
4. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:PFG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### LON:PFG PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Ba1
Balance SheetB2Caa2
Leverage RatiosB1B3
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 484 signals.

## References

1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can neural networks predict stock market?(ATVI Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
3. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
4. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
5. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
6. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
7. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PFG stock?
A: LON:PFG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:PFG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PFG Stock.
Q: Is PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PFG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PFG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PFG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PFG is (n+3 month)