Modelling A.I. in Economics

MOB MOBILICOM LIMITED

Outlook: MOBILICOM LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 11 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

MOBILICOM LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MOB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  2. Nash Equilibria
  3. Trading Signals

MOB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MOBILICOM LIMITED Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MOB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MOB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MOB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MOB MOBILICOM LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 11 Apr 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for MOBILICOM LIMITED

  1. An entity shall assess separately whether each subgroup meets the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1 to be an eligible hedged item. If any subgroup fails to meet the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1, the entity shall discontinue hedge accounting prospectively for the hedging relationship in its entirety. An entity also shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.5.8 and 6.5.11 to account for ineffectiveness related to the hedging relationship in its entirety.
  2. For the purposes of applying the requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a), credit risk is different from asset-specific performance risk. Asset-specific performance risk is not related to the risk that an entity will fail to discharge a particular obligation but instead it is related to the risk that a single asset or a group of assets will perform poorly (or not at all).
  3. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
  4. Paragraph 6.3.4 permits an entity to designate as hedged items aggregated exposures that are a combination of an exposure and a derivative. When designating such a hedged item, an entity assesses whether the aggregated exposure combines an exposure with a derivative so that it creates a different aggregated exposure that is managed as one exposure for a particular risk (or risks). In that case, the entity may designate the hedged item on the basis of the aggregated exposure

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

MOBILICOM LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. MOBILICOM LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MOB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

MOB MOBILICOM LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3C
Balance SheetB1Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Ba2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 840 signals.

References

  1. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
  2. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  3. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  4. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  5. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. How is the price of gold determined? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  6. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  7. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MOB stock?
A: MOB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is MOB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MOB Stock.
Q: Is MOBILICOM LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MOBILICOM LIMITED is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MOB stock?
A: The consensus rating for MOB is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MOB stock?
A: The prediction period for MOB is (n+16 weeks)

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