NCM:TSX Newcrest Mining Limited (Forecast)

Outlook: Newcrest Mining Limited is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 12 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

Newcrest Mining Limited prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NCM:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Why do we need predictive models?
2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
3. Stock Rating

NCM:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Newcrest Mining Limited Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NCM:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NCM:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NCM:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NCM:TSX Newcrest Mining Limited
Time series to forecast n: 12 Apr 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Newcrest Mining Limited

1. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
2. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
3. When an entity, consistent with its hedge documentation, frequently resets (ie discontinues and restarts) a hedging relationship because both the hedging instrument and the hedged item frequently change (ie the entity uses a dynamic process in which both the hedged items and the hedging instruments used to manage that exposure do not remain the same for long), the entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component is separately identifiable—only when it initially designates a hedged item in that hedging relationship. A hedged item that has been assessed at the time of its initial designation in the hedging relationship, whether it was at the time of the hedge inception or subsequently, is not reassessed at any subsequent redesignation in the same hedging relationship.
4. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Newcrest Mining Limited is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Newcrest Mining Limited prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NCM:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

NCM:TSX Newcrest Mining Limited Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	C	Ba3
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	C
Cash Flow	Baa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 845 signals.

References

1. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
2. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
3. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
4. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
5. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
6. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
7. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NCM:TSX stock?
A: NCM:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is NCM:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NCM:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Newcrest Mining Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Newcrest Mining Limited is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NCM:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for NCM:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NCM:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for NCM:TSX is (n+8 weeks)

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