Modelling A.I. in Economics

NGG National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares (Forecast)

Outlook: National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 08 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NGG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. Can machine learning predict?

NGG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NGG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NGG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NGG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NGG National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 08 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares

  1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.
  2. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
  3. For the purpose of recognising foreign exchange gains and losses under IAS 21, a financial asset measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A is treated as a monetary item. Accordingly, such a financial asset is treated as an asset measured at amortised cost in the foreign currency. Exchange differences on the amortised cost are recognised in profit or loss and other changes in the carrying amount are recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.7.10.
  4. If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NGG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

NGG National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2B3
Balance SheetB3Ba2
Leverage RatiosB2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 668 signals.

References

  1. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  4. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  5. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NGG stock?
A: NGG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is NGG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NGG Stock.
Q: Is National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NGG stock?
A: The consensus rating for NGG is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NGG stock?
A: The prediction period for NGG is (n+4 weeks)

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