Modelling A.I. in Economics

ORI Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock

Outlook: Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 11 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ORI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Is now good time to invest?
  3. Game Theory

ORI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of ORI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ORI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ORI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ORI Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 11 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock

  1. If any instrument in the pool does not meet the conditions in either paragraph B4.1.23 or paragraph B4.1.24, the condition in paragraph B4.1.21(b) is not met. In performing this assessment, a detailed instrument-byinstrument analysis of the pool may not be necessary. However, an entity must use judgement and perform sufficient analysis to determine whether the instruments in the pool meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24. (See also paragraph B4.1.18 for guidance on contractual cash flow characteristics that have only a de minimis effect.)
  2. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  3. An entity can rebut this presumption. However, it can do so only when it has reasonable and supportable information available that demonstrates that even if contractual payments become more than 30 days past due, this does not represent a significant increase in the credit risk of a financial instrument. For example when non-payment was an administrative oversight, instead of resulting from financial difficulty of the borrower, or the entity has access to historical evidence that demonstrates that there is no correlation between significant increases in the risk of a default occurring and financial assets on which payments are more than 30 days past due, but that evidence does identify such a correlation when payments are more than 60 days past due.
  4. Paragraph 6.3.6 states that in consolidated financial statements the foreign currency risk of a highly probable forecast intragroup transaction may qualify as a hedged item in a cash flow hedge, provided that the transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the entity entering into that transaction and that the foreign currency risk will affect consolidated profit or loss. For this purpose an entity can be a parent, subsidiary, associate, joint arrangement or branch. If the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction does not affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction cannot qualify as a hedged item. This is usually the case for royalty payments, interest payments or management charges between members of the same group, unless there is a related external transaction. However, when the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction will affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction can qualify as a hedged item. An example is forecast sales or purchases of inventories between members of the same group if there is an onward sale of the inventory to a party external to the group. Similarly, a forecast intragroup sale of plant and equipment from the group entity that manufactured it to a group entity that will use the plant and equipment in its operations may affect consolidated profit or loss. This could occur, for example, because the plant and equipment will be depreciated by the purchasing entity and the amount initially recognised for the plant and equipment may change if the forecast intragroup transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the purchasing entity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ORI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

ORI Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa2Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba1
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 523 signals.

References

  1. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  2. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  3. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  4. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  5. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
  6. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  7. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ORI stock?
A: ORI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test
Q: Is ORI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ORI Stock.
Q: Is Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Old Republic International Corporation Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ORI stock?
A: The consensus rating for ORI is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ORI stock?
A: The prediction period for ORI is (n+1 year)



Stop Guessing, Start Winning.
Get Today's AI-Driven Picks.

Click here to see what the AI recommends.




Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.