Modelling A.I. in Economics

PAC PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED

Outlook: PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 26 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is prediction in deep learning?
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

PAC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PAC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PAC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PAC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PAC PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 26 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED

  1. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.
  2. Paragraph 4.1.1(a) requires an entity to classify financial assets on the basis of the entity's business model for managing the financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. An entity assesses whether its financial assets meet the condition in paragraph 4.1.2(a) or the condition in paragraph 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the business model as determined by the entity's key management personnel (as defined in IAS 24 Related Party Disclosures).
  3. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
  4. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

PAC PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba2
Leverage RatiosBa3C
Cash FlowCB1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 612 signals.

References

  1. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  2. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  3. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  4. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  5. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  6. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  7. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PAC stock?
A: PAC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is PAC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PAC Stock.
Q: Is PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PACIFIC CURRENT GROUP LIMITED is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PAC stock?
A: The consensus rating for PAC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PAC stock?
A: The prediction period for PAC is (n+3 month)

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