Modelling A.I. in Economics

PFIN P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 13 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PFIN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

PFIN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PFIN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PFIN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PFIN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PFIN P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 13 Apr 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock

  1. The characteristics of the hedged item, including how and when the hedged item affects profit or loss, also affect the period over which the forward element of a forward contract that hedges a time-period related hedged item is amortised, which is over the period to which the forward element relates. For example, if a forward contract hedges the exposure to variability in threemonth interest rates for a three-month period that starts in six months' time, the forward element is amortised during the period that spans months seven to nine.
  2. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.
  3. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  4. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PFIN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

PFIN P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Ba1
Cash FlowCB1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 795 signals.

References

  1. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
  2. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
  3. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  4. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  5. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
  6. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  7. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PFIN stock?
A: PFIN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is PFIN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PFIN Stock.
Q: Is P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for P & F Industries Inc. Class A Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PFIN stock?
A: The consensus rating for PFIN is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PFIN stock?
A: The prediction period for PFIN is (n+6 month)

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