Modelling A.I. in Economics

PFO Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated

Outlook: Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 06 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PFO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. How useful are statistical predictions?
  2. How useful are statistical predictions?
  3. Stock Rating

PFO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PFO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PFO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PFO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PFO Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated
Time series to forecast n: 06 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated

  1. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.
  3. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods only if it is possible to do so without the use of hindsight. If an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all the requirements in this Standard for the affected financial instruments. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  4. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PFO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

PFO Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetBaa2Ba3
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba2
Cash FlowBa3Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 747 signals.

References

  1. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
  2. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  3. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  4. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  5. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  6. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
  7. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PFO stock?
A: PFO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is PFO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PFO Stock.
Q: Is Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred and Income Opportunity Fund Incorporated is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PFO stock?
A: The consensus rating for PFO is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PFO stock?
A: The prediction period for PFO is (n+4 weeks)

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