QD Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share (Forecast)

Outlook: Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 27 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the QD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

QD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of QD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of QD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

QD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: QD Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share
Time series to forecast n: 27 Apr 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share

1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
2. An entity may retain the right to a part of the interest payments on transferred assets as compensation for servicing those assets. The part of the interest payments that the entity would give up upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract is allocated to the servicing asset or servicing liability. The part of the interest payments that the entity would not give up is an interest-only strip receivable. For example, if the entity would not give up any interest upon termination or transfer of the servicing contract, the entire interest spread is an interest-only strip receivable. For the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, the fair values of the servicing asset and interest-only strip receivable are used to allocate the carrying amount of the receivable between the part of the asset that is derecognised and the part that continues to be recognised. If there is no servicing fee specified or the fee to be received is not expected to compensate the entity adequately for performing the servicing, a liability for the servicing obligation is recognised at fair value.
3. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
4. An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the QD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

QD Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Caa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	C	Ba2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 467 signals.

References

1. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
2. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
3. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
4. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
5. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
7. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for QD stock?
A: QD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is QD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold QD Stock.
Q: Is Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Qudian Inc. American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of QD stock?
A: The consensus rating for QD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for QD stock?
A: The prediction period for QD is (n+4 weeks)

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