Modelling A.I. in Economics

SIO SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED

Outlook: SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 25 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SIO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. Can machine learning predict?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

SIO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SIO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SIO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SIO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SIO SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 25 Apr 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED

  1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
  2. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).
  3. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  4. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SIO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

SIO SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B3
Balance SheetB1B3
Leverage RatiosB1B3
Cash FlowB3Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 610 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  2. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  3. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  4. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  5. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  6. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  7. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SIO stock?
A: SIO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is SIO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SIO Stock.
Q: Is SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SIO stock?
A: The consensus rating for SIO is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for SIO stock?
A: The prediction period for SIO is (n+3 month)

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