Modelling A.I. in Economics

TCDA Tricida Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Tricida Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 23 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

Tricida Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TCDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Game Theory
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

TCDA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Tricida Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TCDA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TCDA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TCDA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TCDA Tricida Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 23 Apr 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Tricida Inc. Common Stock

  1. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.
  2. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).
  4. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Tricida Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Tricida Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TCDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

TCDA Tricida Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosBa1Ba3
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 637 signals.

References

  1. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  2. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  3. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  4. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  5. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  7. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TCDA stock?
A: TCDA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is TCDA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes TCDA Stock.
Q: Is Tricida Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Tricida Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TCDA stock?
A: The consensus rating for TCDA is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for TCDA stock?
A: The prediction period for TCDA is (n+1 year)

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