Modelling A.I. in Economics

AOI:TSX Africa Oil Corp. (Forecast)

Outlook: Africa Oil Corp. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 18 May 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Africa Oil Corp. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AOI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. Investment Risk

AOI:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Africa Oil Corp. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AOI:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AOI:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AOI:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AOI:TSX Africa Oil Corp.
Time series to forecast n: 18 May 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Africa Oil Corp.

  1. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.
  2. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
  3. The decision of an entity to designate a financial asset or financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss is similar to an accounting policy choice (although, unlike an accounting policy choice, it is not required to be applied consistently to all similar transactions). When an entity has such a choice, paragraph 14(b) of IAS 8 requires the chosen policy to result in the financial statements providing reliable and more relevant information about the effects of transactions, other events and conditions on the entity's financial position, financial performance or cash flows. For example, in the case of designation of a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, paragraph 4.2.2 sets out the two circumstances when the requirement for more relevant information will be met. Accordingly, to choose such designation in accordance with paragraph 4.2.2, the entity needs to demonstrate that it falls within one (or both) of these two circumstances.
  4. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Africa Oil Corp. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Africa Oil Corp. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AOI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

AOI:TSX Africa Oil Corp. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowCaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCC

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 853 signals.

References

  1. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  2. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  3. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  4. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
  5. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  7. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AOI:TSX stock?
A: AOI:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is AOI:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AOI:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Africa Oil Corp. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Africa Oil Corp. is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AOI:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for AOI:TSX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AOI:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for AOI:TSX is (n+6 month)

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