Outlook: Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 18 May 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ARQT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. Investment Risk
3. Investment Risk

## ARQT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ARQT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ARQT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ARQT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ARQT Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 May 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock

1. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
2. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
3. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.
4. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ARQT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### ARQT Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCC
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosBa2Ba2
Cash FlowBa1C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 881 signals. ## References

1. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
2. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
3. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
4. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
5. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
6. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
7. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ARQT stock?
A: ARQT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is ARQT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ARQT Stock.
Q: Is Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ARQT stock?
A: The consensus rating for ARQT is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ARQT stock?
A: The prediction period for ARQT is (n+4 weeks)