Modelling A.I. in Economics

AWRE Aware Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Aware Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 12 May 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

Aware Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AWRE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

AWRE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Aware Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AWRE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AWRE stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AWRE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AWRE Aware Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 12 May 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Aware Inc. Common Stock

  1. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
  2. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.
  3. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
  4. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Aware Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Aware Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AWRE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

AWRE Aware Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Ba3
Balance SheetBa1C
Leverage RatiosB3B1
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 865 signals.

References

  1. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  2. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  4. ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market? (No. Stock Analysis). AC Investment Research.
  5. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
  6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
  7. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AWRE stock?
A: AWRE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is AWRE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AWRE Stock.
Q: Is Aware Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Aware Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AWRE stock?
A: The consensus rating for AWRE is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AWRE stock?
A: The prediction period for AWRE is (n+1 year)

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