Modelling A.I. in Economics

CADL Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 03 May 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CADL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. What is a prediction confidence?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

CADL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CADL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CADL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CADL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CADL Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 03 May 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock

  1. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.
  2. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.
  3. In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.
  4. Paragraph 4.1.1(a) requires an entity to classify financial assets on the basis of the entity's business model for managing the financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. An entity assesses whether its financial assets meet the condition in paragraph 4.1.2(a) or the condition in paragraph 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the business model as determined by the entity's key management personnel (as defined in IAS 24 Related Party Disclosures).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CADL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CADL Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2B1
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 724 signals.

References

  1. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  2. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  3. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is FFBC Stock Buy or Sell?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
  6. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  7. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CADL stock?
A: CADL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is CADL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CADL Stock.
Q: Is Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Candel Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CADL stock?
A: The consensus rating for CADL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CADL stock?
A: The prediction period for CADL is (n+3 month)

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